ANALITICHESKIY VARIANT RESHENIYA ZADACHI O VEROYATNOSTI ODNOVREMENNOGO VOZNIKNOVENIYA SOBYTIY TEHNOGENNOGO HARAKTERA, INICIIRUYUSCHIH POZHARY I VZRYVY
Journal: VESTNIK OF THE EAST SIBERIAN INSTITUTE OF THE MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
№ 4
, 2010
Rubrics: FIRE SAFETY ISSUES
Authors:
1.
Vostochno-sibirskiy institut MVD Rossii
Type:
Article
Pages:
from 46
to 61
Status:
Published
Received:
15.12.2010
Accepted:
15.12.2010
Published:
25.12.2010
Subject area:
VAC 5.1.1 Теоретико-исторические правовые науки
Language:
Russian
Abstract (English):
For definition of likelihood characteristics of failures, fires, explosions frequently it is necessary to define probability of simultaneous occurrence of 2 and more independent events (for example, occurrences of the combustible environment and an ignition source). Thus for definition of probability of simultaneous occurrence of independent events within a year in some techniques the formula of multiplication of probabilities is used. In article the doubt in adequacy of such principle as it, according to the author, overestimates total probability in comparison with results of stochastic modeling is stated. Other analytical dependence Is offered*.
For definition of likelihood characteristics of failures, fires, explosions frequently it is necessary to define probability of simultaneous occurrence of 2 and more independent events (for example, occurrences of the combustible environment and an ignition source). Thus for definition of probability of simultaneous occurrence of independent events within a year in some techniques the formula of multiplication of probabilities is used. In article the doubt in adequacy of such principle as it, according to the author, overestimates total probability in comparison with results of stochastic modeling is stated. Other analytical dependence Is offered*.
1. Pozharnaya bezopasnost'. Obschie trebovaniya. Zagolovok: GOST 12.1.004-91. 1991.
2. Metodicheskie ukazaniya po provedeniyu analiza riska opasnyh proizvodstvennyh ob'ektov: RD 03-418-01. 2-e izd., ispr. i dop. Utv. postanovleniem Gosgortehnadzora Rossii ot 10.07.01 g. № 30.
3. Vetoshkin A.G. Nadezhnost' tehnicheskih sistem i tehnogennyy risk. Penza: PGUAiS, 2003. 155 s.
